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June 2, 2026
Strategic Macro Geopolitics & Markets
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Iran is playing Trump: The S&P Hasn't Noticed Yet
Bonds are quietly pricing the Hormuz risk premium. Equity markets are at all-time highs. Both cannot be right. One of them is trading on hope.
Iran Is
Further reading
- MACRO RESEARCHThey are NOT HIDING, They are LURING TrumpTHE INVISIBLE GAME How the IRGC is playing Trump’s impatience like a clock — and why the second half of this geopolitical cycle may be set in Tehran, not Washington ZTrader // Apri
- MACRO RESEARCHThe Hormuz Insurance Blockade: The actuarial mechanics that closed the strait before Iran couldThe actuarial mechanics that closed the strait before Iran could
- FED RESEARCHMACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT: HORMUZ CLOSURE, INFLATION SHOCK, FED PIVOTZTrader.AI Research · Macro Intelligence · June 6, 2026 MACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT Hormuz Closure · Inflation Shock · Fed Pivo
- MACRO RESEARCH霍尔木兹冲击： 全球能源结构的断裂与重塑霍尔木兹冲击： 全球能源结构的断裂与重塑 LNG供应链崩塌、轻油凝析油断供、亚洲精炼体系重构—— 史上最大能源冲击的结构性解析 发布日期 2026年5月4日 数据来源 IEA · EIA · UNCTAD · Kpler · Vortexa 报告类型 深度研究 / FREE 核心结论： 2026年2月28日美以对伊朗发动军事行动，触发霍尔木兹海峡实质性封锁—
- MACRO RESEARCH霍尔木兹冲突：系统性风险成为裂缝Premium The Hormuz Shock Is Not Regional — It Is Systemic Energy, Gold, and the Emergence of Strategic Vacuum Date: 2026-04-15 Core Thesis 市场当前在犯一个结构性错误： 把霍尔木兹冲突理解为一个“能源问题”。
- MACRO RESEARCH三元悖论：霍尔木兹终局几点要注意： 一、下一个要注意的时间节点 1）未来 48 小时内：第二轮美伊谈判是否真的落地 现在最直接的短线节点，不是什么宏大叙事，是“谈判会不会真的恢复” 路透、联合国和美联社的口径都指向同一个东西：各方都在推动第二轮美伊会谈尽快重启，特朗普也公开说谈判可能在“未来两天内”恢复。也就是说，4月15日到4月17日是市场短线最敏感的窗口。