AAII Sentiment
AAII Sentiment — Retail bull/bear survey as contrarian input.
Definition
AAII Sentiment refers to retail bull/bear survey as contrarian input. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
Equity risk premia compress or expand with earnings paths and factor regimes. When retail bull/bear survey as contrarian input shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what aaii sentiment is saying. If retail bull/bear survey as contrarian input moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Separate index beta from residual; know the sector and factor loadings of the claim. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for AAII Sentiment: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?