arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper compares different methods for forecasting the term structure of U.S. and European zero-coupon government bonds using both traditional econometric and Machine Learning (ML) approaches. We compare classical models (e.g., Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) with different Neural Network (NN) architectures, including those inspired by the classical models, on the U.S. Treasury …
Tobias Lausser, Joao Eduardo Vuolo, Rudi Zagst
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Mid-cap companies, generally valued between \$2 billion and \$10 billion, provide investors with a well-rounded opportunity between the fluctuation of small-cap stocks and the stability of large-cap stocks. This research builds upon the long-short equity approach (e.g., Michaud, 2018; Dimitriu, Alexander, 2002) customized for mid-cap equities, providing steady risk-adjusted returns yielding a significant Sharpe ratio…
Saumya Kothari, Harsh Shah, Utkarsh Prajapati, Shrinjay Kaushik
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
We present a novel process for generating synthetic datasets tailored to assess asset allocation methods and construct portfolios within the fixed income universe. Our approach begins by enhancing the CorrGAN model to generate synthetic correlation matrices. Subsequently, we propose an Encoder-Decoder model that samples additional data conditioned on a given correlation matrix. The resulting synthetic dataset facilit…
Szymon Kubiak, Tillman Weyde, Oleksandr Galkin, Dan Philps, Ram Gopal
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
Constructing an accurate yield curve is essential for evaluating financial instruments and analyzing market trends in the bond market. However, in the case of the Burundian sovereign bond market, the presence of missing data poses a significant challenge to accurately constructing the yield curve. In this paper, we explore the limitations and data availability constraints specific to the Burundian sovereign market an…
Irène Irakoze, Rédempteur Ntawiratsa, David Niyukuri
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
On-chain data (metrics) of blockchain networks, akin to company fundamentals, provide crucial and comprehensive insights into the networks. Despite their informative nature, on-chain data have not been utilized in reinforcement learning (RL)-based systems for cryptocurrency (crypto) portfolio management (PM). An intriguing subject is the extent to which the utilization of on-chain data can enhance an RL-based system'…
Zhenhan Huang, Fumihide Tanaka
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the capital asset pricing model using trading data for the Chinese A-share market from 2000 to 2019. Firstly, the standard CAPM is tested using a Fama-MacBetch regression and although the results successfully test the three core hypotheses, the resulting beta risk does not have a significant impact on returns. Secondly, the Fama-French three-factor model, which uses a comb…
Kai Ren
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
A direct method for calculating default rates by industry and target corporate segments is not possible given the lack of statistical data. The proposed paper considers a model for filtering the dynamics of the probability of default of corporate companies and other borrowers based on indirect data on the dynamics of overdue debt supplied by the Bank of Russia. The model is based on the equation of the balance of tot…
Mikhail Pomazanov
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
We compare the five major sources of corporate Credit Default Swap prices: GFI, Fenics, Reuters, CMA, and Markit, using the most liquid single name 5-year CDS in the iTraxx and CDX indexes from 2004 to 2010. Deviations from the common trend among prices in the different databases are not random but are explained by idiosyncratic factors, financing costs, global risk, and other trading factors. The CMA quotes lead the…
Sergio Mayordomo, Juan Ignacio Peña, Eduardo S. Schwartz
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
In this work we investigate tick-by-tick data provided by the TRTH database for several stocks on three different exchanges (Paris - Euronext, London and Frankfurt - Deutsche Börse) and on a 5-year span. We use a simple algorithm that helps the synchronization of the trades and quotes data sources, providing enhancements to the basic procedure that, depending on the time period and the exchange, are shown to be signi…
Ioane Muni Toke
arXiv · arXiv · 2014
We present a large-scale study of commonality in liquidity and resilience across assets in an ultra high-frequency (millisecond-timestamped) Limit Order Book (LOB) dataset from a pan-European electronic equity trading facility. We first show that extant work in quantifying liquidity commonality through the degree of explanatory power of the dominant modes of variation of liquidity (extracted through Principal Compone…
Efstathios Panayi, Gareth Peters, Ioannis Kosmidis
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Decentralized exchanges record trading and liquidity provision on public blockchains, but empirical analysis requires interpreting these records and linking them to execution metadata. dexamine is a Python package that parses Uniswap v2 and v3 events on Ethereum. It converts transaction receipt logs into observations of trades and liquidity changes, with token quantities, pool state, transaction order, and gas inform…
Magnus Hansson
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Market-order flow in financial markets exhibits long-range correlations. This is a widely known stylised fact of financial markets. A popular hypothesis for this stylised fact comes from the Lillo-Mike-Farmer (LMF) order-splitting theory. However, quantitative tests of this theory have historically relied on proprietary datasets with trader identifiers, limiting reproducibility and cross-market validation. We investi…
Ezra Goliath, Tim Gebbie
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Public data do not identify high-frequency trading (HFT), and standard proxies do not separate liquidity-supplying from liquidity-demanding strategies. We overcome this measurement challenge by training machine learning models on proprietary Nasdaq data to map observed HFT activity to public intraday variables. Applying this mapping, we generate daily measures of liquidity-supplying and liquidity-demanding HFT for al…
Gbenga Ibikunle, Ben Moews, Dmitriy Muravyev, Khaladdin Rzayev
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own order book, and simulated trading nets -0.116 normalized payoff units per attempted …
Gregory Young
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This study develops an inverse portfolio optimization framework for recovering latent investor preferences including risk aversion, transaction cost sensitivity, and ESG orientation from observed portfolio allocations. Using controlled synthetic data, we assess the estimator's statistical properties such as consistency, coverage, and dynamic regret. The model integrates robust optimization and regret-based inference …
Jinho Cha, Long Pham, Thi Le Hoa Vo, Jaeyoung Cho, Jaejin Lee
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Price Trend Prediction (PTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and assets. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that …
Leonardo Berti, Gjergji Kasneci
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
We present our Agent-Based Market Microstructure Simulation (ABMMS), an Agent-Based Financial Market (ABFM) that captures much of the complexity present in the US National Market System for equities (NMS). Agent-Based models are a natural choice for understanding financial markets. Financial markets feature a constrained action space that should simplify model creation, produce a wealth of data that should aid model …
Colin M. Van Oort, Ethan Ratliff-Crain, Brian F. Tivnan, Safwan Wshah
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
Inspired by the recent debate on the macroeconomic implications of the new bank regulatory standards known as Basel III, we tried to find out in this study that the impact of Basel III liquidity and capital requirements in Bangladesh proposed by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2010a). A small set of macro variables, using a sample of 22 private commercial banks operating in Bangladesh for the period of …
Dipti Rani Hazra, Md. Shah Naoaj, Mohammed Mahinur Alam, Abdul Kader