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Copper Price
Copper price is widely used as a proxy for industrial activity, manufacturing demand, and global growth expectations.
Systematic Macro CTA
A CTA that trades futures on economic data, not only price — growth, inflation, positioning, and nowcasts as the signal set.
Behind the Curve
Behind the curve means policy (or a book) is too easy or too slow relative to incoming inflation, growth, or a Taylor-type benchmark — the market is already pricing a catch-up.
Bull Flattener
A bull flattener is the curve flattening as yields fall, usually because the front end rallies more than the long end into easier policy or a growth scare.
Okun's Law
Okun’s law is the empirical link between unemployment changes and GDP growth — a rule of thumb, not a structural identity.
China Credit Impulse
China credit impulse measures the change in new credit growth relative to GDP and is widely used as a leading indicator for Chinese demand and global cyclical momentum.
GDP Nowcast
GDP Nowcast — High-frequency aggregation of activity data to estimate current-quarter growth in real time.
Output Gap
Output Gap — Estimated distance of GDP from potential output, informing policy reaction functions.
Recession
A recession is a significant, persistent, broad decline in activity — in the US, an NBER call, not the two-negative-quarters rule.
Retail Sales Growth
Retail Sales Growth — Nominal and real consumption momentum, critical for growth and inflation nowcasts.
Stagflation
Stagflation is high inflation with stagnant growth and a soft labor market — the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon.
Wage Growth
Wage Growth — Nominal pay momentum that feeds services inflation persistence and Fed reaction functions.
China Property Cycle
China Property Cycle — Developer stress and land sales impacting global commodities and EM growth.
Growth Stock
A growth stock is priced for high expected earnings or sales growth — a duration asset dressed as an equity.
PEG Ratio
The PEG ratio is P/E divided by expected earnings growth — a back-of-the-envelope adjustment of the multiple for growth.
Sector Rotation Signals
Sector Rotation Signals — Cyclical versus defensive leadership indicating growth and rates regime.
Oil Shock 1973
The 1973–74 OPEC embargo quadrupled oil prices, fused inflation with a growth shock (stagflation), and ended the last illusions of the post-war energy-cheap regime.
Steepener Flattener Trade
Steepener Flattener Trade — Curve trades expressing views on growth, inflation, and term premium independently of level.
Terms of Trade Shock
Terms of Trade Shock — Relative export-import price shifts altering growth and currency paths.
Financial Conditions Index
A Financial Conditions Index aggregates variables such as rates, credit spreads, equities, and the dollar to measure how supportive or restrictive the market environment is for growth and risk assets.
Yield Curve
The term structure of interest rates across maturities, used to read growth, liquidity, and stress expectations.
Kelly Criterion
Kelly is the stake that maximizes the expected log of wealth — an aggressive sizing rule that needs a true edge and a stomach.
2s10s Treasury Curve
The 2s10s Treasury curve measures the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields and is a key indicator of growth expectations, policy path, and term structure dynamics.
Asset Growth Effect
Short high asset-growth firms and long low/negative growth — the investment/empire-building anomaly.
Crude Oil Predicts Equity Returns
Time equity beta with oil’s recent move or level — a macro overlay that treats crude as a growth/inflation signal.
Momentum Combined with Asset Growth
Intersect 12-1 momentum with low asset growth — keep winners that are not empire-building.
Momentum Factor and Style Rotation
Rotate among style sleeves (value, growth, quality, size) using the momentum of the styles themselves.
2s10s Treasury Curve
The 2s10s Treasury curve measures the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields and is a key indicator of growth expectations, policy path, and term structure dynamics.
Asset Growth Effect
Short high asset-growth firms and long low/negative growth — the investment/empire-building anomaly.
Behind the Curve
Behind the curve means policy (or a book) is too easy or too slow relative to incoming inflation, growth, or a Taylor-type benchmark — the market is already pricing a catch-up.
Bull Flattener
A bull flattener is the curve flattening as yields fall, usually because the front end rallies more than the long end into easier policy or a growth scare.
China Credit Impulse
China credit impulse measures the change in new credit growth relative to GDP and is widely used as a leading indicator for Chinese demand and global cyclical momentum.
China Property Cycle
China Property Cycle — Developer stress and land sales impacting global commodities and EM growth.
Copper Price
Copper price is widely used as a proxy for industrial activity, manufacturing demand, and global growth expectations.
Crude Oil Predicts Equity Returns
Time equity beta with oil’s recent move or level — a macro overlay that treats crude as a growth/inflation signal.
Financial Conditions Index
A Financial Conditions Index aggregates variables such as rates, credit spreads, equities, and the dollar to measure how supportive or restrictive the market environment is for growth and risk assets.
GDP Nowcast
GDP Nowcast — High-frequency aggregation of activity data to estimate current-quarter growth in real time.
Growth Stock
A growth stock is priced for high expected earnings or sales growth — a duration asset dressed as an equity.
Momentum Combined with Asset Growth
Intersect 12-1 momentum with low asset growth — keep winners that are not empire-building.
Momentum Factor and Style Rotation
Rotate among style sleeves (value, growth, quality, size) using the momentum of the styles themselves.
Oil Shock 1973
The 1973–74 OPEC embargo quadrupled oil prices, fused inflation with a growth shock (stagflation), and ended the last illusions of the post-war energy-cheap regime.
Okun's Law
Okun’s law is the empirical link between unemployment changes and GDP growth — a rule of thumb, not a structural identity.
PEG Ratio
The PEG ratio is P/E divided by expected earnings growth — a back-of-the-envelope adjustment of the multiple for growth.
Retail Sales Growth
Retail Sales Growth — Nominal and real consumption momentum, critical for growth and inflation nowcasts.
Sector Rotation Signals
Sector Rotation Signals — Cyclical versus defensive leadership indicating growth and rates regime.
Stagflation
Stagflation is high inflation with stagnant growth and a soft labor market — the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon.
Steepener Flattener Trade
Steepener Flattener Trade — Curve trades expressing views on growth, inflation, and term premium independently of level.
Systematic Macro CTA
A CTA that trades futures on economic data, not only price — growth, inflation, positioning, and nowcasts as the signal set.
Terms of Trade Shock
Terms of Trade Shock — Relative export-import price shifts altering growth and currency paths.
Wage Growth
Wage Growth — Nominal pay momentum that feeds services inflation persistence and Fed reaction functions.
Yield Curve
The term structure of interest rates across maturities, used to read growth, liquidity, and stress expectations.