Semantic Scholar · Journal of international financial markets, institutions, and money · 2020 · cites 6
Abstract We introduce an affine term structure model with observed macroeconomic factors for credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan. Empirical results based on the model selection using Japanese data demonstrate that the credit spread curves are dominated by the monetary policy and suggest that global economic forces, such as the U.S. Treasury yield and Baa-Aaa credit spread, pl…
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Sumiko Takaoka
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily addresses two gaps in the literature. The first is the lack of credit spread models founded on a stochastic basis that enables continuous modeling, as many existing models rely on fa…
Mohamed Ben Alaya, Ahmed Kebaier, Djibril Sarr
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability assumption, which enables us to work in the context of the benchmark approach. In a Markovian setting, we extend the control theoretic approach of Gombani & Runggaldier (2013) and…
Claudio Fontana, Simone Pavarana, Wolfgang J. Runggaldier
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 2001 · cites 2183
ABSTRACT Using dealer's quotes and transactions prices on straight industrial bonds, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. Variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes have rather limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this regression are highly cross‐correlated, and principal components analysis implies they are mostly driven by a single common factor. Although …
Pierre Collin-Dufresn, Robert S. Goldstein, J. Spencer Martin
OpenAlex · Econometrica · 2001 · cites 1388
We study the implications of imperfect information for term structures of credit spreads on corporate bonds. We suppose that bond investors cannot observe the issuer’s assets directly, and receive instead only periodic and imperfect accounting reports. For a setting in which the assets of the firm are a geometric Brownian motion until informed equityholders optimally liquidate, we derive the conditional distribution …
Darrell Duffie, David Lando
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 1996 · cites 2067
ABSTRACT This article examines the optimal capital structure of a firm that can choose both the amount and maturity of its debt. Bankruptcy is determined endogenously rather than by the imposition of a positive net worth condition or by a cash flow constraint. The results extend Leland's (1994a) closed‐form results to a much richer class of possible debt structures and permit study of the optimal maturity of debt as …
Hayne E. Leland, Klaus Bjerre Toft
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2022 · cites 55
Abstract Two intermediary-based factors—a corporate bond dealer inventory measure and a broad intermediary distress measure—explain more than 40$\%$ of the puzzling common variation in credit spread changes beyond canonical structural factors. A simple intermediary-based model with partial market segmentation accounts for intermediary factors’ explanatory power and delivers three further implications with empirical s…
Zhiguo He, Paymon Khorrami, Zhaogang Song
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper compares different methods for forecasting the term structure of U.S. and European zero-coupon government bonds using both traditional econometric and Machine Learning (ML) approaches. We compare classical models (e.g., Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) with different Neural Network (NN) architectures, including those inspired by the classical models, on the U.S. Treasury …
Tobias Lausser, Joao Eduardo Vuolo, Rudi Zagst
OpenAlex · Applied Sciences · 2020 · cites 186
In quantitative trading, stock prediction plays an important role in developing an effective trading strategy to achieve a substantial return. Prediction outcomes also are the prerequisites for active portfolio construction and optimization. However, the stock prediction is a challenging task because of the diversified factors involved such as uncertainty and instability. Most of the previous research focuses on anal…
Van-Dai Ta, Chuan-Ming Liu, Direselign Addis Tadesse
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
We develop a new framework to detect wash trading in crypto assets through real-time liquidity fluctuation. We propose that short-term price jumps in crypto assets results from wash trading-induced liquidity fluctuation, and construct two complementary liquidity measures, liquidity jump (size of fluctuation) and liquidity diffusion (volatility of fluctuation), to capture the behavioral signature of wash trading. Usin…
Qi Deng, Zhong-Guo Zhou
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
The standard approach for compensating liquidity providers on many decentralized exchanges (DEX) for serving as counter-party to swaps is through charging a small percentage of fees. The expected payoff from the cash flow of this mode of market making has yet to be mathematically formulated in terms of volatility in the existing literature. We provide here a preliminary derivation of the payoff formula, by making the…
Jin Hong Kuan
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Current post-trade clearing systems rely almost exclusively on cash or cash-like collateral, leaving vast reserves of short-term liquidity embedded in trade credit outside formal settlement infrastructures. A key barrier to integrating this liquidity is the near-universal dependence of clearing services on novation, which imposes institutional overhead that restricts accessibility and limits the range of obligations …
Tomaž Fleischman, Ethan Buchman
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
Automated market makers (AMMs) are a new type of trading venues which are revolutionising the way market participants interact. At present, the majority of AMMs are constant function market makers (CFMMs) where a deterministic trading function determines how markets are cleared. Within CFMMs, we focus on constant product market makers (CPMMs) which implements the concentrated liquidity (CL) feature. In this thesis we…
Marcello Monga
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We propose a profitable trading strategy for the cryptocurrency market based on grid trading. Starting with an analysis of the expected value of the traditional grid strategy, we show that under simple assumptions, its expected return is essentially zero. We then introduce a novel Dynamic Grid-based Trading (DGT) strategy that adapts to market conditions by dynamically resetting grid positions. Our backtesting result…
Kai-Yuan Chen, Kai-Hsin Chen, Jyh-Shing Roger Jang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We introduce the Historical and Dynamic Volatility Ratios (HVR/DVR) and show that equity and index volatilities are cointegrated at intraday and daily horizons. This allows us to construct a VECM to forecast portfolio volatility by exploiting volatility cointegration. On S&P 500 data, HVR is generally stationary and cointegration with the index is frequent; the VECM implementation yields substantially lower mean abso…
Gabriele Casto
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
In this bachelor thesis, we show how four different machine learning methods (Long Short-Term Memory, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine Regression, and k-Nearest Neighbor) perform compared to already successfully applied trading strategies such as Cross Signal Trading and a conventional statistical time series model ARMA-GARCH. The aim is to show that machine learning methods perform better than conventional meth…
Danijel Jevtic, Romain Deleze, Joerg Osterrieder
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2015
In this article, the long-term behavior of the stock market index of the New York Stock Exchange is studied, for the period 1950 to 2013. Specifically, the CRSP Value-Weighted and CRSP Equal-Weighted index are analyzed in terms of market efficiency, using the standard ratio variance test, considering over 1600 one week rolling windows. For the equally weighted index, the null hypothesis of random walk is rejected in …
Roberto Ortiz, Mauricio Contreras, Marcelo Villena
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Persistent shifts in term-structure dynamics undermine the stability of single-regime models in long samples. We develop an arbitrage-free regime-switching generalized CIR (RS-GCIR) model that jointly prices the Chinese government bond (CGB) curve and corporate bond curves. To capture the systematic transmission from interest-rate conditions to credit spreads, we structure the model into two blocks and price corporat…
Maochun Xu, Yunqi Liang, Yi Hong