Long-Term Trend Following
Slow trend: lookbacks of roughly 6–12 months, low turnover, fewer whipsaws, later entries, and the bulk of classic CTA crisis convexity.
Definition
Long-Term Trend Following refers to 12 months, low turnover, fewer whipsaws, later entries, and the bulk of classic CTA crisis convexity. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
It is a named object desks use to frame risk, positioning, or process. When 12 months, low turnover, fewer whipsaws, later entries, and the bulk of classic CTA crisis convexity shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what long-term trend following is saying. If 12 months, low turnover, fewer whipsaws, later entries, and the bulk of classic CTA crisis convexity moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Keep the definition fixed, then challenge it with cross-checks before sizing. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Long-Term Trend Following: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?
Ask the macro AI about this object
Opens Copilot with Codex + RAG context, or send the object into Alpha Factory intake.