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The Bad Transparency: How the Fed Is Becoming Trump’s Fed

WARSH TOOK AWAY THE FED’S MAP. THERE IS NO FORWARD GUIDANCE NOR SOFT IMPLICIT TARGET.

Aug 14, 20261 min readMacroTrumpFEDinterest rate

Further reading

  • FED RESEARCHThe Warsh TRAP: The Rate Cut Won’t be the fix but the problemPresident Trump needs to know about how rate cut really works
  • FED RESEARCHFed Is Pricing the Next Hike (or Cycle)The market spent years waiting for the next cut. Now it is quietly rebuilding the hiking cycle.
  • FED RESEARCHThe Quiet HikeIt rarely happens: The Fed just voted 9–0 together.
  • FED RESEARCHFED'S Reaction Function Has BrokenThe Fed has not lost credibility on its inflation target. It has lost something more expensive — the predictability of how it responds to data. That is the price the market is now
  • FED RESEARCHMacro Weekly | The New Hiking CycleAll alpha is generated when markets shift paradigms.
  • FED RESEARCHMacro Weekly | The Dollar Debasement TradeIronically, market has priced none of above factors, for now, market only cares about debasement.

Structure lives in the chart, not the headline.

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