ZMACRO Weekly · November 2, 2026
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Why Are Bond Yields Falling While the Fed Is Hiking?
Investors fled AI stocks into Treasuries and pulled real yields lower, while oil kept a December hike priced.
Topics
- Fed
Further reading
- FED RESEARCHEquity Risk Premium Turns Negative as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.28%S&P 500 forward earnings yield (5.26%) now trails the 10-year Treasury (5.28%) because rates rose faster than earnings estimates.
- FED RESEARCHTrump's 5% Treasury Yield Problem: What BofA's US‑China Stock‑Bond Chart Really ShowsChina's near-record-low 10-year yield came with two decades of equity underperformance and capital controls that Chinese savers are already working around by buying US tech.
- FED RESEARCHFed Is Pricing the Next Hike (or Cycle)The market spent years waiting for the next cut. Now it is quietly rebuilding the hiking cycle.
- FED RESEARCHThe Warsh TRAP: The Rate Cut Won’t be the fix but the problemPresident Trump needs to know about how rate cut really works
- FED RESEARCHThe Quiet HikeIt rarely happens: The Fed just voted 9–0 together.
- FED RESEARCHThe Bad Transparency: How the Fed Is Becoming Trump’s FedWARSH TOOK AWAY THE FED’S MAP. THERE IS NO FORWARD GUIDANCE NOR SOFT IMPLICIT TARGET.