Overnight Seasonality in Bitcoin
Time BTC exposure to the clock — certain hours print more of the return than a 24/7 average would suggest.
Definition
Overnight Seasonality in Bitcoin refers to certain hours print more of the return than a 24/7 average would suggest. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
It is a named object desks use to frame risk, positioning, or process. When certain hours print more of the return than a 24/7 average would suggest shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what overnight seasonality in bitcoin is saying. If certain hours print more of the return than a 24/7 average would suggest moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Keep the definition fixed, then challenge it with cross-checks before sizing. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Overnight Seasonality in Bitcoin: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?