Strategies · Core
Overnight Seasonality in Bitcoin
Time BTC exposure to the clock — certain hours print more of the return than a 24/7 average would suggest.
Definition
Estimate hour-of-day or session (Asia/EU/US) effects in BTC perpetual or spot. Overweight the historically strong window, flatten the weak. 24/7 trading makes the ‘overnight’ a timezone choice. Fees and funding on perps are the cost.
Why it matters
Crypto has clientele clocks (US cash open, Asia afternoon). The effect is a flow map, not a protocol feature.
Case
A US-hours overlay that dies when the marginal trader moves. Intraday seasonality is the first thing to decay when the audience changes.
How to read it
Spot vs perp (funding), venue, and a recent hold-out. Do not annualize a 2018–20 hour effect into a 2026 product.
No query has been run yet. Which is tragically normal for most knowledge systems, but we are trying to evolve past decorative databases.