arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2009
In this paper we develop structural first passage models (AT1P and SBTV) with time-varying volatility and characterized by high tractability, moving from the original work of Brigo and Tarenghi (2004, 2005) [19] [20] and Brigo and Morini (2006)[15]. The models can be calibrated exactly to credit spreads using efficient closed-form formulas for default probabilities. Default events are caused by the value of the firm …
Damiano Brigo, Massimo Morini, Marco Tarenghi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
The primary objective of this study was to examine the impact of the US sovereign credit rating downgrade on its equity market. Utilizing the event study methodology, a sample of three most capitalized listed companies -- Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon -- and the equity market index -- S&P500 -- were used as the proxy for the overall equity market. Three market models were constructed within the estimation window to de…
Japheth Torsar Jev
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
The time proximity of trades across stocks reveals interesting topological structures of the equity market in the United States. In this article, we investigate how such concurrent cross-stock trading behaviors, which we denote as co-trading, shape the market structures and affect stock price co-movements. By leveraging a co-trading-based pairwise similarity measure, we propose a novel method to construct dynamic net…
Yutong Lu, Gesine Reinert, Mihai Cucuringu
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2017
In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as anomalies the theory of rational finance cannot explain: Predictability of asset returns, The Equity Premium, (The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those are the only possible explanations of the anomalies, but offer statisti…
Svetlozar Rachev, Stoyan Stoyanov, Stefan Mittnik, Frank J. Fabozzi, Abootaleb Shirvani
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2014
Using a proprietary dataset of meta-orders and prediction signals, and assuming a quasi-linear impact model, we deconvolve market impact from past correlated trades and a predictable return component to elicit the temporal dependence of the market impact of a single daily meta-order, over a ten day horizon in various equity markets. We find that the impact of single meta-orders is to a first approximation universal a…
X. Brokmann, E. Serie, J. Kockelkoren, J. -P. Bouchaud
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
In this work, we introduce PEARL (Private Equity Accessibility Reimagined with Liquidity), an AI-powered framework designed to replicate and decode private equity funds using liquid, cost-effective assets. Relying on previous research methods such as Erik Stafford's single stock selection (Stafford) and Thomson Reuters - Refinitiv's sector approach (TR), our approach incorporates an additional asymmetry to capture th…
E. Benhamou, JJ. Ohana, B. Guez, E. Setrouk, T. Jacquot
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We consider an equity market subject to risk from both unhedgeable shocks and default. The novelty of our work is that to partially offset default risk, investors may dynamically trade in a credit default swap (CDS) market. Assuming investment opportunities are driven by functions of an underlying diffusive factor process, we identify the certainty equivalent for a constant absolute risk aversion investor with a semi…
Zhe Fei, Scott Robertson
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Mid-cap companies, generally valued between \$2 billion and \$10 billion, provide investors with a well-rounded opportunity between the fluctuation of small-cap stocks and the stability of large-cap stocks. This research builds upon the long-short equity approach (e.g., Michaud, 2018; Dimitriu, Alexander, 2002) customized for mid-cap equities, providing steady risk-adjusted returns yielding a significant Sharpe ratio…
Saumya Kothari, Harsh Shah, Utkarsh Prajapati, Shrinjay Kaushik
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Equity auctions display several distinctive characteristics in contrast to continuous trading. As the auction time approaches, the rate of events accelerates causing a substantial liquidity buildup around the indicative price. This, in turn, results in a reduced price impact and decreased volatility of the indicative price. In this study, we adapt the latent/revealed order book framework to the specifics of equity au…
Mohammed Salek, Damien Challet, Ioane Muni Toke
arXiv · arXiv · 2009
In this paper we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on some dynamics parameters, and we show how to calibrate the model using a chosen number of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. We essentially show how to use structural models with a calibration capability that is typical of the much more tractable credit-spread based intensity models. We apply the structural …
Damiano Brigo, Marco Tarenghi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2015
We postulates, and then show experimentally, that liquidity deficit is the driving force of the markets. In the first part of the paper a kinematic of liquidity deficit is developed. The calculus-like approach, which is based on Radon--Nikodym derivatives and their generalization, allows us to calculate important characteristics of observable market dynamics. In the second part of the paper this calculus is used in a…
Vladislav Gennadievich Malyshkin, Ray Bakhramov
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a new risk-on risk-off strategy for the stock market, which combines a financial stress indicator with a sentiment analysis done by ChatGPT reading and interpreting Bloomberg daily market summaries. Forecasts of market stress derived from volatility and credit spreads are enhanced when combined with the financial news sentiment derived from GPT-4. As a result, the strategy shows improved perform…
Baptiste Lefort, Eric Benhamou, Jean-Jacques Ohana, David Saltiel, Beatrice Guez
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This study develops and evaluates a deep reinforcement learning framework for dynamic portfolio allocation across global equity markets. The Soft Actor-Critic algorithm is used to learn continuous portfolio weights within a Markov Decision Process, incorporating transaction costs, turnover penalties, and diversification constraints into the reward function. Five model configurations are compared, varying in reward fo…
Kamil Kashif, Robert Ślepaczuk
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We test the square-root law (SRL) of market impact on a single U.S. large-capitalisation equity, Apple Inc. (AAPL), using the full Nasdaq TotalView-ITCH market-by-order feed over 178 trading days (2 December 2024 -- 19 August 2025; ~0.5 billion events). Without broker-tagged parent orders, we reconstruct metaorders from the anonymous tape and calibrate impact as $I/σ_D = c\,(Q/V_D)^{1/2}$ with the exponent fixed at t…
Aniket Vasaikar
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Market stress rarely harms investors through one channel alone. Losses, volatility spikes, and deteriorating tradability often arrive together. We examine whether ESG is associated with lower exposure to clustered fragility in equity markets. Using monthly data on S&P 500 constituents from 2014 to 2025, we study downside returns, volatility, illiquidity, and a cofragility state that captures their joint occurrence wi…
Minxuan Hu, Jiayu Yi, Ziheng Chen, Wenxi Sun, Qishi Zhan
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
In response to growing demand for resilient and transparent financial instruments, we introduce a novel framework for replicating private equity (PE) performance using liquid, AI-enhanced strategies. Despite historically delivering robust returns, private equity's inherent illiquidity and lack of transparency raise significant concerns regarding investor trust and systemic stability, particularly in periods of height…
E. Benhamou, JJ. Ohana, B. Guez, E. Setrouk, T. Jacquot
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Why would a blockchain-based startup and its venture capital investors choose to finance by issuing tokens instead of equity? What would be their rates of return for each asset? This paper focuses on the liquidity difference between the two fundraising methods. I build a three-period model of an entrepreneur, two types of investors, and users. Some investors have unforeseen liquidity needs in the middle period that c…
Guangye Cao
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
This paper quantifies the effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market. We estimate equity tail risk with option-implied stock market volatility that stems from large negative price jumps, and we assess its value in reduced-form predictive regressions for Treasury returns and a term structure model for interest rates. We find that the left tail volatility of the stock market significantly predicts one…
Mirco Rubin, Dario Ruzzi