Equity · Core
Bull Market
A bull market is a sustained rise in a broad price index — a regime label, not a law, usually tagged after a ~20% rally from a low.
Definition
Common usage: a ~20% rise from a trough, or a long stretch of higher highs with easy financial conditions. There is no official committee. Breadth, credit, and real rates tell you if it is a melt-up or a repair.
Why it matters
Positioning, issuance, and vol selling all lean with the label. The word arrives late.
Case
2019–21 was a bull with fiscal and Fed backstops. 2023–24 was a narrower bull in a handful of mega-caps. Same word, different breadth.
How to read it
Do not need 20% to be long. Need breadth, credit, and whether the rise is multiple or earnings.
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