Papers, wiki, Option Blackboard, encyclopedia, and cards.
This paper examines the dynamic interaction between falling and rising markets for both the real and the financial sectors of the largest economy in the world using asymmetric causality tests. These tests require that each underlying variable in the model be transformed into partial sums of the positive and negative components. The positive components represent the rising markets and the negative components embody th…
This study utilized the 2007-2009 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) panel dataset to examine the impact of financial planner use on household net financial asset level during the Great recession. Data included 3,862 respondents who completed the SCF survey and a follow up interview. The results indicated that starting to use a financial planner during the Great Recession had a positive impact on preserving and increa…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recess…
We analyse the money-financed fiscal stimulus implemented in Venice during the famine and plague of 1629--31, which was equivalent to a 'net-worth helicopter money' strategy -- a monetary expansion generating losses to the issuer. We argue that the strategy aimed at reconciling the need to subsidize inhabitants suffering from containment policies with the desire to prevent an increase in long-term government debt, bu…
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and es…
The Loan Officer Survey tracks bank lending standards and loan demand, providing insight into whether credit supply is tightening or easing in the real economy.
A recession is a significant, persistent, broad decline in activity — in the US, an NBER call, not the two-negative-quarters rule.
Unemployment Rate — Labor slack measure tied to wage pressure, consumption resilience, and recession rule signals.
Japan’s late-1980s land and equity bubble burst in 1990–92 and became a multi-decade balance-sheet recession — the modern warning about zombification, ZIRP, and delayed write-downs.
An inverted curve is short rates above long rates — a market statement about expected cuts, term premium, and sometimes recession risk.
A hard landing is a policy-induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken.
A soft landing is disinflation (or a slowdown) without a recession — the hoped-for path off a hike cycle.
The 3M10Y Treasury curve compares 10-year Treasury yields with 3-month Treasury bill yields and is closely watched as a recession and policy-cycle indicator.
The 3M10Y Treasury curve compares 10-year Treasury yields with 3-month Treasury bill yields and is closely watched as a recession and policy-cycle indicator.
A hard landing is a policy-induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken.
An inverted curve is short rates above long rates — a market statement about expected cuts, term premium, and sometimes recession risk.
Japan’s late-1980s land and equity bubble burst in 1990–92 and became a multi-decade balance-sheet recession — the modern warning about zombification, ZIRP, and delayed write-downs.
A recession is a significant, persistent, broad decline in activity — in the US, an NBER call, not the two-negative-quarters rule.
A soft landing is disinflation (or a slowdown) without a recession — the hoped-for path off a hike cycle.
Unemployment Rate — Labor slack measure tied to wage pressure, consumption resilience, and recession rule signals.