Hard Landing
A hard landing is a policy-induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken.
Definition
Hard Landing refers to induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
Policy reaction functions move discount rates and liquidity; this concept is one of the levers or constraints. When induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what hard landing is saying. If induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Map the calendar, communication regime, and balance-sheet tools — words and paths both matter. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Hard Landing: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?