Evergrande / China Property 2021
Evergrande’s 2021 missed payments opened a still-running Chinese property and LGFV credit squeeze — a developer-leverage and pre-sale trust crisis under a political deleveraging campaign.
Definition
Developers funded land and towers with bonds, trusts, and household pre-sales. ‘Three red lines’ tightened leverage just as sales slowed. Evergrande was the first giant to miss; the sector’s rollover froze; local-government financing vehicles and banks absorbed the slow bleed.
Why it matters
It is the largest real-estate collateral cycle on earth. Global iron ore, luxury, and EM beta all have a China-property term.
Case
2021 offshore default wave, 2022–24 home-completion politics, and repeated ‘support’ packages that stabilize without a 2008-style cleanup. The crisis is slow, not a Lehman Friday.
How to read it
Pre-sales, completion rates, and LGFV/LG implicit guarantees. Offshore dollar bonds were the visible fuse; onshore trusts and banks are the stock.