Taper Tantrum 2013
The 2013 taper tantrum was a fast global rates-and-EM selloff after Bernanke hinted at slowing QE — a rehearsal of how the world’s dollar duration is one speech.
Definition
Not a solvency crisis. A communication shock: the Fed had not begun to taper, but term premium and mortgage rates jumped, and the ‘fragile five’ EM currencies sold off with current-account deficits and hot-money inflows.
Why it matters
It taught that the stock of QE can matter less than the path of the stock, and that EM beta to US duration is a capital-flow object.
Case
May–June 2013: 10-year yields up ~100 bp, EM FX and local rates hit, then a partial retrace when the Fed slowed the talk. 2021–22 was the sequel with inflation.
How to read it
Identify who is funded by the US term-premium compression. When that compression reverses, those books are the tantrum.
Key papers
Landmark references with real publisher or arXiv links — not token-overlap noise.
- The Taper TantrumSahay et al. · 2014 · IMF Staff Discussion NoteEM channels of the tantrum.