Fed's 25bp Cut Won’t Save This Economy

The “Bad News Is Good News” trade is a faith-based rally. Here’s what breaks when the market realizes rate cuts are not stimulus, they’re a diagnosis. For professional investors & macro traders. This is research, not investment advice. Input Variables (Data / Events) 1) Policy is already in “easing mode,” but conditions are not behaving like a normal easing cycle. The Fed’s target range is 3.50%–3.75% after the Dec 10, 2025 cut.   The upper limit of the target range is 3.75% as of Dec 21, 2025.   2) Markets keep treating “cut” as “rocket fuel.” Traders were pricing ~87% odds of a 25bp cut into the Dec meeting (pre-decision).   Post-cut, equities still rallied on hopes of more easing even as t