TL;DR (Summary) 1. This was a defensive easing, not a victory lap. The Fed cut to 3.75–4.00%, citing “uncertain outlook,” “labor market cooling,” and “data gaps.” It wasn’t a celebration of victory over inflation; it was a precautionary slowdown—avoiding a crash in the fog. 2. The FOMC decision is split, and not just mildly. One camp wants deeper cuts, another wants none, and Powell sits awkwardly in the middle. This kind of directional division guarantees volatility at every meeting going forward. 3. No new dot plot or SEP this round. Markets are forced to extrapolate from September’s guidance—“maybe one more cut this year, but no promises.” October’s tone simply magnified the phrase “maintain optionality.” 4.
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The Great Divide of Fed : On October Rate Cut
Heres why October's Fed Meeting is in absolute chaos
Topics
- Fed
Further reading
- FED RESEARCHFed's 25bp Cut Won’t Save This EconomyHere's why a 25bps cut wont save US economy
- FED RESEARCHThe Private Credit Time Bomb and the Fed’s Liquidity TrapFed can not risks cut any further... and thats the new status quo.
- FED RESEARCHLiquidity Is Not One Thing. And the Market Knows It.Every cycle, the same error repeats: a single word — liquidity — absorbs blame for rallies, crashes, rotations, and divergences that require entirely different explanations.
- FED RESEARCHFED'S Reaction Function Has BrokenThe Fed has not lost credibility on its inflation target. It has lost something more expensive — the predictability of how it responds to data. That is the price the market is now
- FED RESEARCHThe Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real VoterThe Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real Voter | Premium Macro Note The market is still asking the wrong question.
- MACRO RESEARCHZtrader｜Macro Note｜美国国债（美债）与联储动态·深度报告为信息整合与数据播报，不构成任何投资建议。关键数字标注来源，口径为最近可得的日频/周频数据。 0. 扫描与要点（今日版） 收益率锚点（截至最新已发布日频）：2年≈3.48%、10年≈4.01%、30年≈4.57%。