Research Flow
Ongoing market research
Daily / event-driven notes. Membership unlocks full PRO reports — not Library products.
Ztrader · Research
See the structure
Research Flow for ongoing notes — Intelligence Library for permanent assets.Membership ≠ Library · EN / 中文One-click translateAI read-aloudFree · switch language in the header
Intelligence Library
Permanent desk Bibles
Own the machinery once — 2 institutional Bibles (Yen Carry Bible · VIX Trading Bible). Membership never unlocks Library.
Codex · KnowledgeOpen Codex →
Tag map25 topics · 41 notes — optional
Knowledge Topology25 nodes · 41 articlesAuto-rotating mobile mode
#Fed
FEDPRO
LATESTNov 02, 2026
Why Are Bond Yields Falling While the Fed Is Hiking?
Investors fled AI stocks into Treasuries and pulled real yields lower, while oil kept a December hike priced.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Oct 14, 2026
ZMacro Weekly: September CPI and 5% 10-Year Treasury Yield
Headline CPI runs hot on gasoline; the 10-year’s 5.24% is a long-end problem a soft core print won’t fix.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Oct 05, 2026
Equity Risk Premium Turns Negative as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.28%
S&P 500 forward earnings yield (5.26%) now trails the 10-year Treasury (5.28%) because rates rose faster than earnings estimates.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Sep 30, 2026
Why Is Gold Falling? The Iran War, the Fed Hike and the Real-Yield Math Behind Gold's 2026 Selloff
Gold is falling because the Iran war's oil shock pushed the Fed into hiking and lifted the US 10-year real yield to 2.90%, its highest level since 2008.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Sep 29, 2026
Trump's 5% Treasury Yield Problem: What BofA's US‑China Stock‑Bond Chart Really Shows
China's near-record-low 10-year yield came with two decades of equity underperformance and capital controls that Chinese savers are already working around by buying US tech.
Continue →
FEDFREE
Sep 27, 2026
The US Bond Crisis | How We Got Here, From the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to Bessent's Buybacks
Treasury yields at their highest since 2007 are pricing a contest between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over who sets the price of long-term American debt, and eighty years of bond market history show how that contest usually ends.
Read →
FEDFREE
Sep 24, 2026
10-Year Yield Hits 5%: What It Means For The AI Trade
Candlesticks compress thousands of trades into four prices, and order flow tools recover the buying and selling that the candle leaves out.
Read →
FEDPRO
Sep 23, 2026
Macro Weekly | 10-Year Yield Hits 5%: What It Means For The AI Trade
The market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation.
Continue →
FEDFREE
Sep 20, 2026
Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices and Fed Rate Hikes: This Is Not an Inflation Problem. It Is a War Problem.
The Fed can raise rates, but it cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Read →
FEDFREE
Sep 12, 2026
Fed Is Pricing the Next Hike (or Cycle)
The market spent years waiting for the next cut. Now it is quietly rebuilding the hiking cycle.
Read →
FEDFREE
Sep 01, 2026
The Bond Primer 01 | Why Yield Will Tell You Everything
Bonds tell you what money costs, how much liquidity exists, what the market thinks inflation will do, whether governments can refinance themselves, and how aggressively investors are being paid to take duration risk.
Read →
FEDPRO
Aug 24, 2026
Macro Weekly | The Dollar Debasement Trade
Ironically, market has priced none of above factors, for now, market only cares about debasement.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Aug 18, 2026
Weekly Macro | The Fed Faces Three Flashpoints This Week Markets Are Priced for None of Them
FOMC minutes, a Fed governor's board fight, and Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote land in the same eight days, while the VIX curve prices the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
Continue →
FEDFREE
Aug 14, 2026
The Bad Transparency: How the Fed Is Becoming Trump’s Fed
WARSH TOOK AWAY THE FED’S MAP. THERE IS NO FORWARD GUIDANCE NOR SOFT IMPLICIT TARGET.
Read →
FEDPRO
Aug 04, 2026
Bessent Publicly Orders the Fed to Bail Out the Yen — and Leaves Warsh No Quiet Way Out
He didn't ask at their usual Tuesday breakfast. He asked on X, in front of markets, naming the Fed facility he wants enlarged. Warsh now has six weeks to answer, and every option is a public one.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Jul 28, 2026
MACRO WEEKLY | The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait
ZMACRO JULY 28, 2026 Oil · Shipping · Monetary Policy The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait Hormuz traffic is down 95%. War-risk premiums have gone up forty-fold. Crude round-tripped a hundred dollars in two s
Continue →
FEDPRO
Jul 24, 2026
THE YIELD MAGIC 01 HOW THE CENTRAL BANK ACTUALLY MOVES RATES
The Fed does not set interest rates. It sets a corridor, then pays banks to sit inside it.
Continue →
FEDPRO
Jun 10, 2026
Japan Cannot Buy Yield: The Ministry of Finance Against the Carry Trade Machine
Tokyo has deployed a record $73 billion defending the yen. USDJPY held near 160. That is not a failure of will. It is proof that intervention is a liquidity event, and the carry trade is a structural one — and the two instruments exist in entirely different dimensions of force.
Continue →
FEDFREE
Jun 06, 2026
MACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT: HORMUZ CLOSURE, INFLATION SHOCK, FED PIVOT
ZTrader.AI Research · Macro Intelligence · June 6, 2026 MACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT Hormuz Closure · Inflation Shock · Fed Pivo
Read →
FEDFREE
May 28, 2026
FED'S Reaction Function Has Broken
The Fed has not lost credibility on its inflation target. It has lost something more expensive — the predictability of how it responds to data. That is the price the market is now beginning to charge.
Read →
免费加入 Telegram 频道每日宏观信号 · 波动率笔记 · 市场解读
JOIN FREE ↗