The Dollar Debasement Trade
Three hawks dissented for a hike.
The Treasury doubled its buyback. The market priced neither — it priced debasement.
We are now seeing three independent hawks signals dissented for any foreseeable rate hikes. US Treasury doubled its buyback scale from 2B to 4B.
Topics
- Fed
Further reading
- FED RESEARCHThe Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real VoterThe Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real Voter | Premium Macro Note The market is still asking the wrong question.
- FED RESEARCHWhy Are Bond Yields Falling While the Fed Is Hiking?Investors fled AI stocks into Treasuries and pulled real yields lower, while oil kept a December hike priced.
- FED RESEARCHHow to Trade Economic Data 02: Inflation, CPI, PPI and PCEThe Fed announces its next decision on October 28. September PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, comes out on October 29.
- FED RESEARCHMacro Weekly | The New Hiking CycleAll alpha is generated when markets shift paradigms.
- FED RESEARCHFed Is Pricing the Next Hike (or Cycle)The market spent years waiting for the next cut. Now it is quietly rebuilding the hiking cycle.
- FED RESEARCHThe Warsh TRAP: The Rate Cut Won’t be the fix but the problemPresident Trump needs to know about how rate cut really works