ZMACRO JULY 28, 2026 Oil · Shipping · Monetary Policy The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait Hormuz traffic is down 95%. War-risk premiums have gone up forty-fold. Crude round-tripped a hundred dollars in two s
ZMACRO JULY 28, 2026 Oil · Shipping · Monetary Policy The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait Hormuz traffic is down 95%. War-risk premiums have gone up forty-fold. Crude round-tripped a hundred dollars in two sessions. The FOMC has to classify all of it by tomorrow afternoon. Dorian Introduction This piece was written on the morning the Federal Open Market Committee convened, and it is about a gap. One set of numbers says the oil crisis is easing: Brent off its highs, headline CPI falling, gasoline futures retreating on news of talks in Tehran. Another set says the physical system that moves oil has largely stopped functioning — ten transits a day through a strait that normally handles 178, war-risk cover at ten percent of hull value, a US development agency standing up a twenty-billion-dollar reinsurance facility because private markets will not carry the risk alone. Both sets
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