Headline CPI runs hot on gasoline; the 10-year’s 5.24% is a long-end problem a soft core print won’t fix.
ZMACRO Weekly · September CPI Preview Oct 13, 2026 September CPI Preview: Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Stays Above 5% Headline CPI runs hot on gasoline; the 10-year’s 5.24% is a long-end problem a soft core print won’t fix. By Dorian · ZTrader.AI Research U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SINCE THE SEPT 16 FED HIKE SEP 16 CLOSE OCT 9 CLOSE CHANGE 2-YEAR 4.74% 4.80% +6bp 10-YEAR 5.01% 5.24% +23bp 30-YEAR 5.35% 5.60% +25bp LONG END FRONT END CHANGE = OCT 9 MINUS SEP 16 CLOSE, IN BASIS POINTS · GREEN = YIELD UP SOURCE: U.S. TREASURY DAILY PAR YIELDS Since the hike, the 10-year has risen about 4× as much as the 2-year. Core CPI moves the front end; the long end answers to supply and term premium. The Fed hiked in September with core CPI at 2.4%. Since that hike, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 23 basis points while the 2-year moved 6. Wednesday’s CPI tests the Fed’s call, and even a clean answer
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