Consumer Price Index

CPI is a fixed-basket consumer-price index — the headline inflation print that sets TIPS, Social Security, and a lot of politics.

Definition

BLS prices a basket, weights from expenditure surveys, and publishes headline and cores (ex food and energy). Shelter (OER) is slow. CPI is not PCE; they differ in weights and formulas. YoY and MoM tell different stories at turning points.

Why it matters

Real yields, breakevens, and wage talks use it. A ‘hot’ CPI is a rates event before it is an earnings event.

Case

2021–23: headline CPI peaked and fell while shelter lagged. Policy that waited for headline to be 2% waited for a lagging component.

How to read it

Headline vs core, supercore, and the 3-month annualized. Know what is imputed. Do not treat one MoM as a regime.

Memory

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Related notes from ZTrader memory. Open full Memory search →

Define Consumer Price Index in plain language. Then say why it matters and give one short case. If evidence is thin, say what is missing — do not invent a trading playbook.

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