Economy · Core
Disinflation
Disinflation is a falling inflation rate while prices still rise — the 2023 word, not deflation.
Definition
Inflation goes from 8% to 3%. The price level is still up. Policy and markets can treat it as a win while households remember the level. Soft vs hard landings are about whether disinflation needed a recession.
Why it matters
It is the path off a spike. Rates markets trade the speed. Equities trade whether earnings survive the path.
Case
US 2022–24: disinflation without a deep unemployment spike (so far). The debate was ‘immaculate’ vs lagged labor.
How to read it
Level vs rate, and which components are doing the cooling. Shelter-led disinflation is a different tape than goods-led.
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