Crisis Alpha
Crisis alpha is return earned from persistent trends that form after a market crisis starts — not a prediction of the crash day, and not a put that pays on a two-day dip.
Definition
Crisis Alpha refers to not a prediction of the crash day, and not a put that pays on a two-day dip. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
It is a named object desks use to frame risk, positioning, or process. When not a prediction of the crash day, and not a put that pays on a two-day dip shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what crisis alpha is saying. If not a prediction of the crash day, and not a put that pays on a two-day dip moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Keep the definition fixed, then challenge it with cross-checks before sizing. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Crisis Alpha: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?
Ask the macro AI about this object
Opens Copilot with Codex + RAG context, or send the object into Alpha Factory intake.