The market priced the ceasefire as an ending. It was a pause between three chokepoints failing one after another — and the refining system never got the chance to rebuild what the first shock took.
Macro — Energy Hormuz Reopened. The Red Sea and the Caspian Just Failed Too. The market priced the ceasefire as an ending. It was a pause between three chokepoints failing one after another — and the refining system never got the chance to rebuild what the first shock took. Dorian · ZTrader.AI Research I. On June 26, Brent settled at $72.53 a barrel. Desks that had spent five months pricing war risk started pricing it out. The MOU between Washington and Tehran was ten days old, tankers were queuing to reload at Bandar Abbas, and the EIA's July 7 outlook had Brent averaging $85 for June — down $32 from the April peak. The story writing itself in every research note was the same: Hormuz reopened, crude retreated, the shock was over. Refining margins were the only thing still screaming, and refining margins are a lagging problem, not a headline one. That story lasted about two weeks. On Jul
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