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TWO AUTHORITIES ARE BLUFFING. THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO FIND OUT WHICH ONE FOLDS FIRST
The BOJ signals hikes it can't deliver while defending the yen. OPEC+ stops even pretending to defend a floor.
Topics
- Japan
- Oil
Further reading
- MACRO RESEARCHHORMUZ IS THE BEST LEVERAGE ON EARTHIt only takes one low-cost attack to damage trillions.
- MACRO RESEARCHYen Intervention Meets the AI Debt WallThree systems that were never built to absorb each other — a strengthening yen, a Fed that has stopped explaining itself, and an AI credit chain running on circular financing — are
- MACRO RESEARCHTokyo Intervened Again Thursday. The Yen Still Can't Find a Floor.The Bank of Japan took its policy rate to the highest level since 1995 last month. Dollar/yen is still trading close to its weakest level since 1986.
- FED RESEARCHWhy Is Gold Falling? The Iran War, the Fed Hike and the Real-Yield Math Behind Gold's 2026 SelloffGold is falling because the Iran war's oil shock pushed the Fed into hiking and lifted the US 10-year real yield to 2.90%, its highest level since 2008.
- FED RESEARCHThe Carry Trade That Could Break the Treasury Market: Inside Japan's Yen Defense and the 2026 Unwind RiskIntervention bought Tokyo three weeks. The carry trade that funds half the world's risk appetite is already back near record size — and this time the exit runs straight through the
- FED RESEARCHBessent's Notepad Said "Buy Japanese Yen, $5–10 Billion." The Treasury Hasn't Done That Since 2011.Hours later, the U.S. moves on it — the first time Washington has intervened to prop up the yen since the 2011 tsunami relief effort.