This is the bond primer series for serious Macro Investors: the fact is most investors watch stocks and only the real professionals watch the bond market react.
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The Bond Primer 01 | Why Yield Will Tell You Everything
Bonds tell you what money costs, how much liquidity exists, what the market thinks inflation will do, whether governments can refinance themselves, and how aggressively investors are being paid to take duration risk.
Further reading
- FED RESEARCHWhy Are Bond Yields Falling While the Fed Is Hiking?Investors fled AI stocks into Treasuries and pulled real yields lower, while oil kept a December hike priced.
- FED RESEARCHEquity Risk Premium Turns Negative as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.28%S&P 500 forward earnings yield (5.26%) now trails the 10-year Treasury (5.28%) because rates rose faster than earnings estimates.
- FED RESEARCHTrump's 5% Treasury Yield Problem: What BofA's US‑China Stock‑Bond Chart Really ShowsChina's near-record-low 10-year yield came with two decades of equity underperformance and capital controls that Chinese savers are already working around by buying US tech.
- FED RESEARCHThe US Bond Crisis | How We Got Here, From the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to Bessent's BuybacksTreasury yields at their highest since 2007 are pricing a contest between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over who sets the price of long-term American debt, and eighty years
- FED RESEARCHMacro Weekly | 10-Year Yield Hits 5%: What It Means For The AI TradeThe market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation.
- FED RESEARCHTHE YIELD MAGIC 01 HOW THE CENTRAL BANK ACTUALLY MOVES RATESThe Fed does not set interest rates. It sets a corridor, then pays banks to sit inside it.