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THE YIELD MAGIC 01 HOW THE CENTRAL BANK ACTUALLY MOVES RATES
The Fed does not set interest rates. It sets a corridor, then pays banks to sit inside it.
The Fed does not set interest rates. It sets a corridor, then pays banks to sit inside it.
Topics
- Fed
Further reading
- FED RESEARCHWhy Are Bond Yields Falling While the Fed Is Hiking?Investors fled AI stocks into Treasuries and pulled real yields lower, while oil kept a December hike priced.
- FED RESEARCHHow to Trade Economic Data 02: Inflation, CPI, PPI and PCEThe Fed announces its next decision on October 28. September PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, comes out on October 29.
- FED RESEARCHEquity Risk Premium Turns Negative as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.28%S&P 500 forward earnings yield (5.26%) now trails the 10-year Treasury (5.28%) because rates rose faster than earnings estimates.
- FED RESEARCHTrump's 5% Treasury Yield Problem: What BofA's US‑China Stock‑Bond Chart Really ShowsChina's near-record-low 10-year yield came with two decades of equity underperformance and capital controls that Chinese savers are already working around by buying US tech.
- FED RESEARCHThe US Bond Crisis | How We Got Here, From the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to Bessent's BuybacksTreasury yields at their highest since 2007 are pricing a contest between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over who sets the price of long-term American debt, and eighty years
- FED RESEARCHMacro Weekly | 10-Year Yield Hits 5%: What It Means For The AI TradeThe market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation.