MACRO / JAPAN-US TRANSMISSION
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The Carry Trade That Could Break the Treasury Market: Inside Japan's Yen Defense and the 2026 Unwind Risk
Intervention bought Tokyo three weeks. The carry trade that funds half the world's risk appetite is already back near record size — and this time the exit runs straight through the US Treasury market.
Intervention bought Tokyo three weeks. The carry trade that funds half the world's risk appetite is already back near record size — and this time the exit runs straight through the US Treasury market.
Topics
- Japan
Further reading
- FED RESEARCHBessent's Notepad Said "Buy Japanese Yen, $5–10 Billion." The Treasury Hasn't Done That Since 2011.Hours later, the U.S. moves on it — the first time Washington has intervened to prop up the yen since the 2011 tsunami relief effort.
- FED RESEARCHThe Great Divide of Fed : On October Rate CutHeres why October's Fed Meeting is in absolute chaos
- FED RESEARCHHow to Trade Economic Data 02: Inflation, CPI, PPI and PCEThe Fed announces its next decision on October 28. September PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, comes out on October 29.
- FED RESEARCHZMacro Weekly: September CPI and 5% 10-Year Treasury YieldHeadline CPI runs hot on gasoline; the 10-year’s 5.24% is a long-end problem a soft core print won’t fix.
- FED RESEARCHWhy Is Gold Falling? The Iran War, the Fed Hike and the Real-Yield Math Behind Gold's 2026 SelloffGold is falling because the Iran war's oil shock pushed the Fed into hiking and lifted the US 10-year real yield to 2.90%, its highest level since 2008.
- FED RESEARCHMacro Weekly | The New Hiking CycleAll alpha is generated when markets shift paradigms.