Three systems that were never built to absorb each other — a strengthening yen, a Fed that has stopped explaining itself, and an AI credit chain running on circular financing — are converging on the same six weeks.
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Yen Intervention Meets the AI Debt Wall
Three systems that were never built to absorb each other — a strengthening yen, a Fed that has stopped explaining itself, and an AI credit chain running on circular financing — are converging on the same six weeks.
Topics
- Japan
Further reading
- MACRO RESEARCHTokyo Intervened Again Thursday. The Yen Still Can't Find a Floor.The Bank of Japan took its policy rate to the highest level since 1995 last month. Dollar/yen is still trading close to its weakest level since 1986.
- MACRO RESEARCHTWO AUTHORITIES ARE BLUFFING. THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO FIND OUT WHICH ONE FOLDS FIRSTThe BOJ signals hikes it can't deliver while defending the yen. OPEC+ stops even pretending to defend a floor.
- FED RESEARCHThe Great Divide of Fed : On October Rate CutHeres why October's Fed Meeting is in absolute chaos
- FED RESEARCHThe Carry Trade That Could Break the Treasury Market: Inside Japan's Yen Defense and the 2026 Unwind RiskIntervention bought Tokyo three weeks. The carry trade that funds half the world's risk appetite is already back near record size — and this time the exit runs straight through the
- FED RESEARCHBessent's Notepad Said "Buy Japanese Yen, $5–10 Billion." The Treasury Hasn't Done That Since 2011.Hours later, the U.S. moves on it — the first time Washington has intervened to prop up the yen since the 2011 tsunami relief effort.
- MACRO RESEARCHHow to Trade Economic Data: Reading JOLTS, PMI and Payrolls Like a Macro Trader (Part 1)Market reaction to economic releases is driven by surprise magnitude, calendar timing, and the specific Fed-focused component, rendering headline numbers virtually useless.