Market Bubble
A market bubble is a price path driven more by narrative, leverage, and new buyers than by discounted cash flow — obvious after, argued during.
Definition
Market Bubble refers to obvious after, argued during. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
Equity risk premia compress or expand with earnings paths and factor regimes. When obvious after, argued during shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what market bubble is saying. If obvious after, argued during moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Separate index beta from residual; know the sector and factor loadings of the claim. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Market Bubble: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?
Ask the macro AI about this object
Opens Copilot with Codex + RAG context, or send the object into Alpha Factory intake.