The market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation.
ZMACRO WEEKLY SEPTEMBER 22, 2026 10-Year Yield Hits 5%: What It Means For The AI Trade The market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation. The status quo: Credit Risk is underestimated and there are three independent signals proving this. The rest of market and index just hasn't caught up. And that's where true ALPHA is hiding. The Fed hiked 25bp and the 10-year closed at 5.01%, which is the highest since 2007. The trade is this: investment-grade credit spreads sit at 78bp — near their tightest since before the 2008 financial crisis, roughly half their 10-year average of 130bp — and a real 25bp policy shock landed on top of that and changed nothing and market not realizing ANYTHING up-till now. The credit index may appear to be flat but the truth is that hundreds of unrelated issuers are linked towards the interest rate risks
Premium research continues below.
Unlock to read the full report, framework, and trade path.