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Cover for Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices and Fed Rate Hikes: This Is Not an Inflation Problem. It Is a War Problem.

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LATEST

Sep 20, 2026

Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices and Fed Rate Hikes: This Is Not an Inflation Problem. It Is a War Problem.

The Fed can raise rates, but it cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

#oil#hormuz#geopolitics

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Cover for Fed Is Pricing the Next Hike (or Cycle)

FEDFREE

Sep 12, 2026

Fed Is Pricing the Next Hike (or Cycle)

The market spent years waiting for the next cut. Now it is quietly rebuilding the hiking cycle.

#interest-rate#economy

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Cover for The Bond Primer 01 | Why Yield Will Tell You Everything

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Sep 01, 2026

The Bond Primer 01 | Why Yield Will Tell You Everything

Bonds tell you what money costs, how much liquidity exists, what the market thinks inflation will do, whether governments can refinance themselves, and how aggressively investors are being paid to take duration risk.

#bond#yield#primer

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Cover for Macro Weekly | The Dollar Debasement Trade

FEDPRO

Aug 24, 2026

Macro Weekly | The Dollar Debasement Trade

Ironically, market has priced none of above factors, for now, market only cares about debasement.

#interest-rates

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FEDPRO

Aug 18, 2026

Weekly Macro | The Fed Faces Three Flashpoints This Week Markets Are Priced for None of Them

FOMC minutes, a Fed governor's board fight, and Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote land in the same eight days, while the VIX curve prices the outcome as a foregone conclusion.

#trading

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Cover for The Bad Transparency: How the Fed Is Becoming Trump’s Fed

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Aug 14, 2026

The Bad Transparency: How the Fed Is Becoming Trump’s Fed

WARSH TOOK AWAY THE FED’S MAP. THERE IS NO FORWARD GUIDANCE NOR SOFT IMPLICIT TARGET.

#trump#interest-rate

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Cover for Bessent Publicly Orders the Fed to Bail Out the Yen — and Leaves Warsh No Quiet Way Out

FEDPRO

Aug 04, 2026

Bessent Publicly Orders the Fed to Bail Out the Yen — and Leaves Warsh No Quiet Way Out

He didn't ask at their usual Tuesday breakfast. He asked on X, in front of markets, naming the Fed facility he wants enlarged. Warsh now has six weeks to answer, and every option is a public one.

#investing#yen

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FEDPRO

Jul 28, 2026

MACRO WEEKLY | The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait

ZMACRO JULY 28, 2026 Oil · Shipping · Monetary Policy The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait Hormuz traffic is down 95%. War-risk premiums have gone up forty-fold. Crude round-tripped a hundred dollars in two s

#oil#hormuz

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FEDPRO

Jul 24, 2026

THE YIELD MAGIC 01 HOW THE CENTRAL BANK ACTUALLY MOVES RATES

The Fed does not set interest rates. It sets a corridor, then pays banks to sit inside it.

#bond

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Cover for Japan Cannot Buy Yield: The Ministry of Finance Against the Carry Trade Machine

FEDPRO

Jun 10, 2026

Japan Cannot Buy Yield: The Ministry of Finance Against the Carry Trade Machine

Tokyo has deployed a record $73 billion defending the yen. USDJPY held near 160. That is not a failure of will. It is proof that intervention is a liquidity event, and the carry trade is a structural one — and the two instruments exist in entirely different dimensions of force.

#japanese-yen#boj#fx

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Cover for MACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT: HORMUZ CLOSURE, INFLATION SHOCK, FED PIVOT

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Jun 06, 2026

MACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT: HORMUZ CLOSURE, INFLATION SHOCK, FED PIVOT

ZTrader.AI Research  ·  Macro Intelligence  ·  June 6, 2026 MACRO RESET BEGINS AT THE STRAIT Hormuz Closure  ·  Inflation Shock  ·  Fed Pivo

#hormuz#geopolitcal

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FEDFREE

May 28, 2026

FED'S Reaction Function Has Broken

The Fed has not lost credibility on its inflation target. It has lost something more expensive — the predictability of how it responds to data. That is the price the market is now beginning to charge.

#interest-rate

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Cover for The Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real Voter

FEDPRO

Apr 25, 2026

The Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real Voter

The Fed Is Split, But Oil Is the Real Voter | Premium Macro Note The market is still asking the wrong question.

#interest-rates

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FEDPRO

Apr 19, 2026

美联储开始失去定价锚：传导链正在失效

美联储信用危机：锚链正在断裂 ZTrader // 2026年4月18日核心论点美联储面对的不是政策两难，而是一个结构性陷阱——每一条政策路径都会产生该机构本应阻止的结果。这不是难以权衡的取舍，是功能性失效。一、三向冲击同时激活 2026年的问题在于，冲击不是顺序到来的，而是同时发生，并且相互放大。

#美联储#宏观#货币政策

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FEDPRO

Apr 03, 2026

从“降息交易”切回“战争通胀交易”

Tactical Strategy Sheet 2026年4月3日｜从“降息交易”切回“战争通胀交易” 核心判断昨夜市场不是单纯在交易地缘政治 headline，而是在重定价一个更麻烦的组合：油价冲击 + 通胀回摆 + 降息预期后撤 + 增长预期变脆。4月2日美股盘中一度明显走弱，但尾盘收回大部分跌幅，标普仅小涨0.1%，纳指涨0.2%，道指跌0.1%。

#宏观#非农#美联储

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FEDPRO

Mar 29, 2026

3月美联储深度月报

ZTrader.AI Research · 宏观月报美联储 · 美债 · 通胀全球央行深度月报覆盖2026年2–3月：FOMC 3月18日决议、SEP最新预测、美债收益率体系重构、通胀数据全景、Kevin Warsh权力交接冲击，以及ECB/BOE/BOJ政策态势全盘扫描。伊朗战争如何重写2026年央行政策路径。日期 2026.03.28 覆盖

#美联储#货币政策

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FEDPRO

Jan 20, 2026

日本国债收益率失控的真正原因

日本国债并不是“利率到4%”这么简单，而是财政主导风险正式进入定价阶段。高市早苗路线下，日本正在从“央行统治的低波动债券市场”，过渡到“财政与政治决定期限溢价的正常国家”。这不是一次行情，而是一次定价范式切换。

#日债#宏观#日元

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Cover for 「高市交易」与日元下行螺旋：激进财政-宽松偏好如何逼出更弱日元、吞噬财政空间并扰动日债市场

FEDPRO

Jan 15, 2026

「高市交易」与日元下行螺旋：激进财政-宽松偏好如何逼出更弱日元、吞噬财政空间并扰动日债市场

｜Macro Note（付费研报）发布日期：2026-01-15（Asia/Tokyo）本文为信息整合与宏观推演，不构成投资建议。 0. 结论先行市场正在重新定价“日本政策组合”：不是单独定价BOJ升不升息，而是定价“高市路线”带来的更激进财政扩张 + 对宽松货币更友好的组合风险，这个组合天然压低日元、抬高长端利率，并引发“债汇双杀”。

#日元#日本央行#宏观交易

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FEDPRO

Dec 30, 2025

钱荒再临？美联储流动性紧张背后的系统性逻辑与市场震荡

摘要 2025年末，美国货币市场再次显现出与短期资金紧缺相关的价格与流动性错配信号，引发市场关于“钱荒”是否重现的讨论。与2019年回购市场危机相比，当前局势既有相似机制，也显现更深层次的制度结构变化。本报告从宏观框架审视资金紧缩逻辑、核心变量机制、市场反馈与未来约束，为投资者提供系统化判断与风险映射。

#美联储#宏观#美元

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FEDPRO

Dec 21, 2025

美联储致命错误：25基点降息有用吗？

“坏消息就是好消息”的交易，本质是一场信仰型反弹。当市场意识到：降息不是刺激，而是诊断时，真正会崩塌的是什么。” 面向专业投资者与宏观交易员。本文为研究分析，不构成任何投资建议。

#美联储#利率#宏观

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