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Text index for Fed / macro / vol / quant notes. Cover cards and PRO/FREE badges live on the home page; this archive is the lean reading directory.
#macro-trading
- Oct 15, 2026
How to Trade Economic Data 02: Inflation, CPI, PPI and PCE
The Fed announces its next decision on October 28. September PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, comes out on October 29.
MEMBERS - Oct 05, 2026
Equity Risk Premium Turns Negative as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.28%
S&P 500 forward earnings yield (5.26%) now trails the 10-year Treasury (5.28%) because rates rose faster than earnings estimates.
MEMBERS - Sep 30, 2026
Why Is Gold Falling? The Iran War, the Fed Hike and the Real-Yield Math Behind Gold's 2026 Selloff
Gold is falling because the Iran war's oil shock pushed the Fed into hiking and lifted the US 10-year real yield to 2.90%, its highest level since 2008.
MEMBERS - Sep 28, 2026
Oil Prices, the Strait of Hormuz and the Midterms: How to Trade Brent Calendar Spreads
The Saudi bypass pipeline should be back to full flow around election week, which is when Washington’s reported timeline for renewed strikes on Iran begins, and the Brent futures curve is where those two dates collide.
MEMBERS - Sep 27, 2026
The US Bond Crisis | How We Got Here, From the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to Bessent's Buybacks
Treasury yields at their highest since 2007 are pricing a contest between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over who sets the price of long-term American debt, and eighty years of bond market history show how that contest usually ends.
- Sep 26, 2026
How to Trade Economic Data: Reading JOLTS, PMI and Payrolls Like a Macro Trader (Part 1)
Market reaction to economic releases is driven by surprise magnitude, calendar timing, and the specific Fed-focused component, rendering headline numbers virtually useless.
- Aug 23, 2026
Alpha & Risk Log 01 | 08.23.2026: The Global Dollar Deadlock
A changing paradigm in volatility, rates, and flow — and why most of the market hasn't priced it yet.
MEMBERS