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Text index for Fed / macro / vol / quant notes. Cover cards and PRO/FREE badges live on the home page; this archive is the lean reading directory.
#bond
- Nov 02, 2026
Why Are Bond Yields Falling While the Fed Is Hiking?
Investors fled AI stocks into Treasuries and pulled real yields lower, while oil kept a December hike priced.
MEMBERS - Oct 05, 2026
Equity Risk Premium Turns Negative as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.28%
S&P 500 forward earnings yield (5.26%) now trails the 10-year Treasury (5.28%) because rates rose faster than earnings estimates.
MEMBERS - Sep 29, 2026
Trump's 5% Treasury Yield Problem: What BofA's US‑China Stock‑Bond Chart Really Shows
China's near-record-low 10-year yield came with two decades of equity underperformance and capital controls that Chinese savers are already working around by buying US tech.
MEMBERS - Sep 27, 2026
The US Bond Crisis | How We Got Here, From the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to Bessent's Buybacks
Treasury yields at their highest since 2007 are pricing a contest between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over who sets the price of long-term American debt, and eighty years of bond market history show how that contest usually ends.
- Sep 23, 2026
Macro Weekly | 10-Year Yield Hits 5%: What It Means For The AI Trade
The market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation.
MEMBERS - Sep 01, 2026
The Bond Primer 01 | Why Yield Will Tell You Everything
Bonds tell you what money costs, how much liquidity exists, what the market thinks inflation will do, whether governments can refinance themselves, and how aggressively investors are being paid to take duration risk.
- Jul 24, 2026
THE YIELD MAGIC 01 HOW THE CENTRAL BANK ACTUALLY MOVES RATES
The Fed does not set interest rates. It sets a corridor, then pays banks to sit inside it.
MEMBERS