← Home · Research archive
See the structure
Text index for Fed / macro / vol / quant notes. Cover cards and PRO/FREE badges live on the home page; this archive is the lean reading directory.
#oil
- Sep 20, 2026
Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices and Fed Rate Hikes: This Is Not an Inflation Problem. It Is a War Problem.
The Fed can raise rates, but it cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Sep 16, 2026
HORMUZ IS THE BEST LEVERAGE ON EARTH
It only takes one low-cost attack to damage trillions.
MEMBERS - Sep 16, 2026
THE HORMUZ TRAP | Why the world is running out of maritime chokepoints
Why the world is running out of maritime chokepoints
- Aug 03, 2026
TWO AUTHORITIES ARE BLUFFING. THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO FIND OUT WHICH ONE FOLDS FIRST
The BOJ signals hikes it can't deliver while defending the yen. OPEC+ stops even pretending to defend a floor.
MEMBERS - Jul 28, 2026
MACRO WEEKLY | The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait
ZMACRO JULY 28, 2026 Oil · Shipping · Monetary Policy The Fed Meets Today With Ten Ships in the Strait Hormuz traffic is down 95%. War-risk premiums have gone up forty-fold. Crude round-tripped a hundred dollars in two s
MEMBERS - Jul 25, 2026
Hormuz Reopened. The Red Sea and the Caspian Just Failed Too.
The market priced the ceasefire as an ending. It was a pause between three chokepoints failing one after another — and the refining system never got the chance to rebuild what the first shock took.
MEMBERS - Jul 20, 2026
Weekly Macro | Chips Down. Oil Up.
Markets ended the week under pressure from two shocks that affect valuation through different channels.
MEMBERS - May 27, 2026
The Hormuz Insurance Blockade: The actuarial mechanics that closed the strait before Iran could
The actuarial mechanics that closed the strait before Iran could
MEMBERS